1. Predicting the invasive trend of exotic plants in China based on the ensemble model under climate change: A case for three invasive plants of Asteraceae?

Fang, Y., Zhang, X., Wei, H., Wang, D., Chen, R., Wang, L., & Gu, W. (2021). Predicting the invasive trend of exotic plants in China based on the ensemble model under climate change: A case for three invasive plants of Asteraceae. Science of The Total Environment, 756, 143841.

Ageratina adenophora, Eupatorium odoratum, and Mikania micrantha are three highly destructive invasive plants of Compositae in China. Through the screening of SDMs, random forest (RF), gradient boosting model (GBM), artificial neural network (ANN), and flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) with TSS greater than 0.8 are selected to construct a high-precision ensemble model (EM) as the prediction model. We use specimen sites and environmental variables containing climate, soil, terrain, and human activities to simulate and predict the invasion trend of three invasive weeds in China in current, the 2050s, and the 2070s. Results indicate that the highly invasive risk area of three exotic plants is mostly distributed along the river in the provinces south of 30° N. In the future scenario, the three exotic plants obviously invade northwards Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Fujian. Climate is the most important variable that affects the spread of three kinds of alien plant invasions. Temperature and precipitation variables have a similar effect on A. adenophora and E. odoratum, while M. micrantha is more sensitive to temperature. It has been reported that Ipomoea batatas and Vitex negundo can prevent the invasion of three invasive plants. Hence, we also simulate the suitable planting areas for I. batatas and V. negundo. The results show that I. batatas and V. negundo are suitable to be planted in the areas where the three weeds show invasion tendency. In the paper, predicting invasion trends of exotic plants and simulating the planting suitability of crops that can block invasion, to provide a practical significance reference and suggestion for the management, prevention, and control of the invasion of exotic plants in China.

 

2. Evolution of physiological performance in invasive plants under climate change

Gianoli, E., & Molina‐Montenegro, M. A. (2021). Evolution of physiological performance in invasive plants under climate change. Evolution.

Climate change is expected to promote biological invasions. Invasive species often undergo adaptive evolution, but whether invasive species show greater evolutionary potential than their native counterparts under climate change has rarely been evaluated. We conducted experimental evolution trials comparing the evolution of physiological performance (light-saturated photosynthetic rate, Amax) of coexisting and closely related (1) invasive-native species pairs from Arid, Alpine, and Antarctic ecosystems, and (2) an invasive-naturalized species pair from a Mediterranean ecosystem differing in invasiveness. Experiments were conducted over three generations and under four environments of temperature and water availability resembling typical and climate change conditions in each ecosystem. Amax increased across generations for most species. Invasive species from Arid, Alpine, and Antarctic ecosystems showed similar, greater, and lesser evolution of Amax than their native counterparts, respectively. The Mediterranean invasive species showed greater evolution of Amax than its naturalized congener. Similar patterns were observed in all four experimental environments for each ecosystem, suggesting that comparable responses may be expected under climate change scenarios. All study species showed a positive association between Amax and reproductive output. Results suggest that invasive plants and their native (or naturalized) counterparts would show similar evolutionary responses of physiological performance to global warming and drought.

 

3. Invasive Plants Are a Valuable Alternate Protein Source and Can Contribute to Meeting Climate Change Targets

Russell, W. R., Iyer, A., Bestwick, C., & Duncan, S. (2021). Invasive plants are a valuable alternate protein source and can contribute to meeting climate change targets. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 28.

Agriculture has come under pressure to meet global food demands, whilst having to meet economic and ecological targets. This has opened newer avenues for investigation in unconventional protein sources. Current agricultural practises manage marginal lands mostly through animal husbandry, which; although effective in land utilisation for food production, largely contributes to global green-house gas (GHG) emissions. Assessing the revalorisation potential of invasive plant species growing on these lands may help encourage their utilisation as an alternate protein source and partially shift the burden from livestock production; the current dominant source of dietary protein, and offer alternate means of income from such lands. Six globally recognised invasive plant species found extensively on marginal lands; Gorse (Ulex europaeus), Vetch (Vicia sativa), Broom (Cytisus scoparius), Fireweed (Chamaenerion angustifolium), Bracken (Pteridium aquilinum), and Buddleia (Buddleja davidii) were collected and characterised to assess their potential as alternate protein sources. Amino acid profiling revealed appreciable levels of essential amino acids totalling 33.05 ± 0.04 41.43 ± 0.05, 33.05 ± 0.11, 32.63 ± 0.04, 48.71 ± 0.02 and 21.48 ± 0.05 mg/g dry plant mass for Gorse, Vetch, Broom Fireweed, Bracken, and Buddleia, respectively. The availability of essential amino acids was limited by protein solubility, and Gorse was found to have the highest soluble protein content. It was also high in bioactive phenolic compounds including cinnamic- phenyl-, pyruvic-, and benzoic acid derivatives. Databases generated using satellite imagery were used to locate the spread of invasive plants. Total biomass was estimated to be roughly 52 Tg with a protein content of 5.2 Tg with a total essential amino acid content of 1.25 Tg (~24%). Globally, Fabaceae was the second most abundant family of invasive plants. Much of the spread was found within marginal lands and shrublands. Analysis of intrinsic agricultural factors revealed economic status as the emergent factor, driven predominantly by land use allocation, with shrublands playing a pivotal role in the model. Diverting resources from invasive plant removal through herbicides and burning to leaf protein extraction may contribute toward sustainable protein, effective land use, and achieving emission targets, while simultaneously maintaining conservation of native plant species.

 

4. Climate Change (Third Edition), Observed Impacts on Planet Earth, Chapter 25 - Invasive plants and climate change

Turbelin, A., & Catford, J. A. (2021). Invasive plants and climate change. In Climate Change (pp. 515-539). Elsevier.

This chapter provides a broad overview of the interactions between invasive alien plants and climate change. Invasive alien plants are harmful nonnative plant species that have been introduced by humans outside of their “natural” geographical range. Both climate change and alien plant invasions result from human activities and can cause major environmental and socioeconomic damage. Although they can operate as independent environmental and economic threats, they can also interact. Climate change can facilitate alien plant invasions (1) by altering background environmental conditions; (2) by increasing disturbance through extreme climatic events; and (3) through human responses to climate change. While all plants, regardless of whether they are native or alien, will likely be affected by environmental change, it is widely expected that climate change will favor invasive alien plants at the expense of native plants. The way in which invasive alien plants impact the environment (e.g., modifying hydrology and soil properties, altering fire regimes) can to some extent either contribute to or exacerbate the effect of climate change. Here, we consider why and how climate change is predicted to exacerbate alien plant invasions and provide examples of how invasive alien plants can contribute to climate change. We first briefly describe what makes a plant invasive, how and why a plant becomes invasive, what stages must it go through, and what the drivers of invasion are.

 

 

5. Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche

Guerra-Coss, F. A., Badano, E. I., Cedillo-Rodríguez, I. E., Ramírez-Albores, J. E., Flores, J., Barragán-Torres, F., & Flores-Cano, J. A. (2021). Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche. Science of The Total Environment, 777, 146007.

The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.

 

 

6. Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

Tu, W., Xiong, Q., Qiu, X., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios. Ecological Indicators, 129, 107919.

The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR.

 

 

7.Long-Term Changes of Aquatic Invasive Plants and Implications for Future Distribution: A Case Study Using a Tank Cascade System in Sri Lanka

Kariyawasam, C. S., Kumar, L., Kogo, B. K., & Ratnayake, S. S. (2021). Long-term changes of aquatic invasive plants and implications for future distribution: a case study using a tank cascade system in Sri Lanka. Climate, 9(2), 31.

Climate variability can influence the dynamics of aquatic invasive alien plants (AIAPs) that exert tremendous pressure on aquatic systems, leading to loss of biodiversity, agricultural wealth, and ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these impacts remains poorly known. The current study aims to analyse the long-term changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of AIAPs under the influence of climate variability in a heavily infested tank cascade system (TCS) in Sri Lanka. The changes in coverage of various features in the TCS were analysed using the supervised maximum likelihood classification of ten Landsat images over a 27-year period, from 1992 to 2019 using ENVI remote sensing software. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimate were used to analyse the trend of annual rainfall and temperature. We observed a positive trend of temperature that was statistically significant (p value < 0.05) and a positive trend of rainfall that was not statistically significant (p values > 0.05) over the time period. Our results showed fluctuations in the distribution of AIAPs in the short term; however, the coverage of AIAPs showed an increasing trend in the study area over the longer term. Thus, this study suggests that the AIAPs are likely to increase under climate variability in the study area.

 

 

8. Fast invasives fastly become faster: Invasive plants align largely with the fast side of the plant economics spectrum

Montesinos, D. (2021). Fast invasives fastly become faster: invasive plants align largely with the fast side of the plant economics spectrum. Journal of Ecology. Invasive plants generally align with the fast side of the plant's trait economics spectrum, characterized by fast nutrient acquisition, growth and reproduction. However, there are numerous and notable exceptions, including woody invasives. The generalization that invasives are fast is driven by the high occurrence of invasive ruderal species colonizing nutrient-rich disturbed habitats, a consequence of anthropogenic disturbance usually going hand-in-hand with biological introductions. Successful invasive plans have shown a remarkable ability to rapidly adapt to the new regions where they are introduced. These changes predominantly involve increased resource acquisition, growth and reproduction, aligning them even further with the fast side of the plant economics spectrum. Common garden experiments with invasive model systems provide valuable insights about the speed and direction of adaptive responses to different climates, helping us to predict general plant responses to global change. Synthesis. Invasive plant species commonly present fast nutrient acquisition, growth and reproduction, but this general pattern is mostly driven by ruderal species. Still, common garden experiments comparing populations from distant world regions show a clear trend for already fast invasive plants to rapidly adapt towards even faster traits in their non-native regions.

 

 

9. Rapid Evolution of Invasive Weeds Under Climate Change: Present Evidence and Future Research Needs

Clements, D. R., & Jones, V. L. (2021). Rapid Evolution of Invasive Weeds Under Climate Change: Present Evidence and Future Research Needs. Frontiers in Agronomy, 3, 10.

Although evolution has been often seen as a gradual process through a Darwinian lens, far more rapid evolutionary change has been observed in recent times. Recent examples documenting the potential speed of invasive plant evolution have included: latitudinal flowering clines, life history shifts, or abrupt changes in morphology. The timescales for such observations range from centuries down to <5 years. Invasive weeds provide good models for the rapid changes, partly because invasive weeds exhibit unique evolutionary mechanisms integral to their success. For example, purging of their genetic load may enable invasive plants to adapt more rapidly. Other genetic mechanisms include plasticity as an evolved trait, hybridization, polyploidy, epigenetics, and clonal division of labor. It is well-demonstrated that anthropogenic stressors such as habitat disturbance or herbicide use may work synergistically with climate change stressors in fostering rapid weed evolution. Changing temperatures, moisture regimes and extreme climate events operate universally, but invasive plant species are generally better equipped than native plants to adapt. Research on this potential for rapid evolution is critical to developing more proactive management approaches that anticipate new invasive plant ecotypes adapted to changing climatic conditions.

 

 

10. The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

Zhang, X., Wei, H., Zhao, Z., Liu, J., Zhang, Q., Zhang, X., & Gu, W. (2020). The global potential distribution of invasive plants: Anredera cordifolia under climate change and human activity based on random forest models. Sustainability, 12(4), 1491.

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

 

11. Biotic interactions mediate soil microbial feedbacks to climate change

Crowther, T. W., Thomas, S. M., Maynard, D. S., Baldrian, P., Covey, K., Frey, S. D., et al. A. (2015). Biotic interactions mediate soil microbial feedbacks to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(22), 7033-7038.

Decomposition of organic material by soil microbes generates an annual global release of 50–75 Pg carbon to the atmosphere, ∼7.5–9 times that of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This process is sensitive to global change factors, which can drive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks with the potential to enhance atmospheric warming. Although the effects of interacting global change factors on soil microbial activity have been a widespread ecological focus, the regulatory effects of interspecific interactions are rarely considered in climate feedback studies. We explore the potential of soil animals to mediate microbial responses to warming and nitrogen enrichment within a long-term, field-based global change study. The combination of global change factors alleviated the bottom-up limitations on fungal growth, stimulating enzyme production and decomposition rates in the absence of soil animals. However, increased fungal biomass also stimulated consumption rates by soil invertebrates, restoring microbial process rates to levels observed under ambient conditions. Our results support the contemporary theory that top-down control in soil food webs is apparent only in the absence of bottom-up limitation. As such, when global change factors alleviate the bottom-up limitations on microbial activity, top-down control becomes an increasingly important regulatory force with the capacity to dampen the strength of positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks.

 

 

12. Model behavior of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: predicting soil carbon dynamics under climate change

Treseder, K. K. (2016). Model behavior of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: predicting soil carbon dynamics under climate change. Botany, 94(6), 417-423.

In this commentary, I advocate for more detailed incorporation of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in Earth system models, to improve our projections of global climate change. Current Earth system models display relatively low predictability of soil C stocks, which limit our ability to estimate future climate conditions. A more explicit incorporation of microbial mechanisms can increase the accuracy of ecosystem-scale models that inform the larger-scale Earth system models. Of the numerous microbial groups that can influence soil C dynamics, AM fungi are particularly tractable for integration in models. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are globally abundant and perform critical roles in C cycling, such as augmentation of net primary productivity and soil C storage. Moreover, AM communities exhibit relatively low diversity within ecosystems, compared with other microbial groups. In addition, global datasets of AM ecology are available for use in model development. Thus, AM communities can be readily simulated in next-generation trait-based models that link microbial diversity to ecosystem function. Altogether, we are well-poised to incorporate the dynamics of individual AM taxa in ecosystem models, which can then be coupled to Earth system models. Hopefully, these efforts would advance our ability to predict and plan for future climate change.

 

 

13. Role of Fungi in Climate Change Abatement Through Carbon Sequestration

Malyan, S. K., Kumar, A., Baram, S., Kumar, J., Singh, S., Kumar, S. S., & Yadav, A. N. (2019). Role of fungi in climate change abatement through carbon sequestration. In Recent advancement in white biotechnology through fungi (pp. 283-295). Springer, Cham.

Global warming is an important phenomenon responsible for global climate change. The rise in mean air temperature is attributed to the enhanced concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons are the abundant greenhouses gases in the atmosphere. CO2 is the main greenhouse gas accounting for 76% of the total greenhouse effect. Both human activities and natural phenomena are responsible for the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Soil respiration and soil carbon sequestration are considered as the source and sink, respectively, for CO2 gas. The net balance of respiration and sequestration in the soil are responsible for carbon concentration dynamics in the atmosphere. Higher CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a major culprit behind global threat known as global warming. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere may be reduced by soil carbon sequestration. Microorganisms including soil fungi enhance the rate of soil carbon sequestration through carbon assimilation from the atmosphere. In soil, fungi assimilate carbon in its hyphae. The amount and rate of carbon sequestration with the help of soil fungi are also affected by age and resilience of hyphae. The higher rate of carbon sequestration in soil may help in mitigating climate change.

 

 

14. Toxigenic Fungi and Mycotoxins in a Climate Change Scenario: Ecology, Genomics, Distribution, Prediction and Prevention of the Risk

Perrone, G., Ferrara, M., Medina, A., Pascale, M., & Magan, N. (2020). Toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins in a climate change scenario: Ecology, genomics, distribution, prediction and prevention of the risk. Microorganisms, 8(10), 1496.

Toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins are very common in food crops, with noticeable differences in their host specificity in terms of pathogenicity and toxin contamination. In addition, such crops may be infected with mixtures of mycotoxigenic fungi, resulting in multi-mycotoxin contamination. Climate represents the key factor in driving the fungal community structure and mycotoxin contamination levels pre- and post-harvest. Thus, there is significant interest in understanding the impact of interacting climate change-related abiotic factors (especially increased temperature, elevated CO2 and extremes in water availability) on the relative risks of mycotoxin contamination and impacts on food safety and security. We have thus examined the available information from the last decade on relative risks of mycotoxin contamination under future climate change scenarios and identified the gaps in knowledge. This has included the available scientific information on the ecology, genomics, distribution of toxigenic fungi and intervention strategies for mycotoxin control worldwide. In addition, some suggestions for prediction and prevention of mycotoxin risks are summarized together with future perspectives and research needs for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change scenarios.

 

 

15. Can fungal endophytes fast-track plant adaptations to climate change?

Suryanarayanan, T. S., & Shaanker, R. U. (2021). Can fungal endophytes fast-track plant adaptations to climate change?. Fungal Ecology, 101039.

Rapid climate change threatens plant communities. While many studies address the impact of climate change on plants and mechanisms of their resilience to climate stressors, the role of the plant microbiome in aiding plants' adaptation to climate change has been less investigated. We argue here that fungal endophytes, an important constituent of the plant microbiome, may be key to the ability of plants to adapt to climatic stressors. The rapid adaptive response of endophytes coupled with their ability to ‘transfer’ resistance to their hosts may fast-track plants' adaptation to climate change. We briefly review the importance of Class 3 fungal endophytes of terrestrial plants and discuss how they may accelerate adaptations to climate change in crops and natural plant communities and call for efforts directed at improving the understanding of fungal endophyte-facilitated plant health. Such information could aid in devising improved strategies for mitigating climate change effects on plant communities.

 

 

16. Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Hamann, E., Denney, D., Day, S., Lombardi, E., Jameel, M. I., MacTavish, R., & Anderson, J. T. (2021). Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions. Plant Science, 304, 110737.

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO2] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO2]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

 

 

17. Soil microbiomes and climate change

Jansson, J. K., & Hofmockel, K. S. (2020). Soil microbiomes and climate change. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 18(1), 35-46.

The soil microbiome governs biogeochemical cycling of macronutrients, micronutrients and other elements vital for the growth of plants and animal life. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on soil microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide present a grand challenge and major opportunity as we direct our research efforts towards one of the most pressing problems facing our planet. In this Review, we explore the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems, as well as potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change.

 

 

18. Lower relative abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungi under a warmer and drier climate is linked to enhanced soil organic matter decomposition

Querejeta, J. I., Schlaeppi, K., López‐García, Á., Ondoño, S., Prieto, I., van Der Heijden, M. G., & del Mar Alguacil, M. (2021). Lower relative abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungi under a warmer and drier climate is linked to enhanced soil organic matter decomposition. New Phytologist.

The aboveground impacts of climate change receive extensive research attention, but climate change could also alter belowground processes such as the delicate balance between free-living fungal decomposers and nutrient-scavenging mycorrhizal fungi that can inhibit decomposition through a mechanism called the Gadgil effect. We investigated how climate change-induced reductions in plant survival, photosynthesis and productivity alter soil fungal community composition in a mixed arbuscular/ectomycorrhizal (AM/EM) semiarid shrubland exposed to experimental warming (W) and/or rainfall reduction (RR). We hypothesised that increased EM host plant mortality under a warmer and drier climate might decrease ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) abundance, thereby favouring the proliferation and activity of fungal saprotrophs. The relative abundance of EMF sequences decreased by 57.5% under W+RR, which was accompanied by reductions in the activity of hydrolytic enzymes involved in the acquisition of organic-bound nutrients by EMF and their host plants. W+RR thereby created an enhanced potential for soil organic matter (SOM) breakdown and nitrogen mineralisation by decomposers, as revealed by 127–190% increases in dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen, respectively, and decreasing SOM content in soil. Climate aridification impacts on vegetation can cascade belowground through shifts in fungal guild structure that alter ecosystem biogeochemistry and accelerate SOM decomposition by reducing the Gadgil effect.

 

 

19. Regional Diversity of Maritime Antarctic Soil Fungi and Predicted Responses of Guilds and Growth Forms to Climate Change

Newsham, K. K., Davey, M. L., Hopkins, D. W., & Dennis, P. G. (2021). Regional diversity of maritime Antarctic soil fungi and predicted responses of guilds and growth forms to climate change. Frontiers in microbiology, 11, 3575.

We report a metabarcoding study documenting the fungal taxa in 29 barren fellfield soils sampled from along a 1,650 km transect encompassing almost the entire maritime Antarctic (60–72°S) and the environmental factors structuring the richness, relative abundance, and taxonomic composition of three guilds and growth forms. The richness of the lichenised fungal guild, which accounted for 19% of the total fungal community, was positively associated with mean annual surface air temperature (MASAT), with an increase of 1.7 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of lichenised fungi per degree Celsius rise in air temperature. Soil Mn concentration, MASAT, C:N ratio, and pH value determined the taxonomic composition of the lichenised guild, and the relative abundance of the guild was best predicted by soil Mn concentration. There was a 3% decrease in the relative abundance of the saprotrophic fungal guild in the total community for each degree Celsius rise in air temperature, and the OTU richness of the guild, which accounted for 39% of the community, was negatively associated with Mn concentration. The taxonomic composition of the saprotrophic guild varied with MASAT, pH value, and Mn, NH4+-N, and SO42− concentrations. The richness of the yeast community, which comprised 3% of the total fungal community, was positively associated with soil K concentration, with its composition being determined by C:N ratio. In contrast with a similar study in the Arctic, the relative abundance and richness of lichenised fungi declined between 60°S and 69°S, with those of saprotrophic Agaricales also declining sharply in soils beyond 63°S. Basidiomycota, which accounted for 4% of reads, were much less frequent than in vegetated soils at lower latitudes, with the Ascomycota (70% of reads) being the dominant phylum. We conclude that the richness, relative abundance, and taxonomic composition of guilds and growth forms of maritime Antarctic soil fungi are influenced by air temperature and edaphic factors, with implications for the soils of the region as its climate changes during the 21st century.

 

 

20. Prevalence of Aflatoxin- and Fumonisin-Producing Fungi Associated with Cereal Crops Grown in Zimbabwe and Their Associated Risks in a Climate Change Scenario

Akello, J., Ortega-Beltran, A., Katati, B., Atehnkeng, J., Augusto, J., Mwila, C. M., et al. (2021). Prevalence of aflatoxin-and fumonisin-producing fungi associated with cereal crops grown in Zimbabwe and their associated risks in a climate change scenario. Foods, 10(2), 287.

In most sub-Saharan African countries, staple cereal grains harbor many fungi and some produce mycotoxins that negatively impact health and trade. Maize and three small grain cereals (sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet) produced by smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe during 2016 and 2017 were examined for fungal community structure, and total aflatoxin (AF) and fumonisin (FM) content. A total of 800 maize and 180 small grain samples were collected at harvest and during storage from four agroecological zones. Fusarium spp. dominated the fungi associated with maize. Across crops, Aspergillusflavus constituted the main Aspergillus spp. Small grain cereals were less susceptible to both AF and FM. AF (52%) and FM (89%) prevalence was higher in maize than in small grains (13–25% for AF and 0–32% for FM). Less than 2% of small grain samples exceeded the EU regulatory limit for AF (4 µg/kg), while <10% exceeded the EU regulatory limit for FM (1000 µg/kg). For maize, 28% and 54% of samples exceeded AF and FM Codex guidance limits, respectively. Higher AF contamination occurred in the drier and hotter areas while more FM occurred in the wetter year. AF exposure risk assessment revealed that small grain consumption posed low health risks (≤0.02 liver cancer cases/100,000 persons/year) while maize consumption potentially caused higher liver cancer rates of up to 9.2 cases/100,000 persons/year depending on the locality. Additionally, FM hazard quotients from maize consumption among children and adults were high in both years, but more so in a wet year than a dry year. Adoption of AF and FM management practices throughout the maize value chain coupled with policies supporting dietary diversification are needed to protect maize consumers in Zimbabwe from AF- and FM-associated health effects. The higher risk of health burden from diseases associated with elevated concentration of mycotoxins in preferred maize during climate change events can be relieved

 

21. Effects of PM10 and Weather on Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases in the Ciuc Basin (Romanian Carpathians)

Bodor, K., Micheu, M. M., Keresztesi, Á., Birsan, M. V., Nita, I. A., Bodor, Z., et al. (2021). Effects of PM10 and weather on respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in the Ciuc Basin (Romanian Carpathians). Atmosphere, 12(2), 289.

This study presents the PM10 concentration, respiratory and cardiovascular disease hospital admissions evolution in the Ciuc basin for a period of 9 years (2008–2016), taking into consideration different meteorological conditions: boundary layer, lifting condensation level, temperature-humidity index, and wind chill equivalent chart index. The PM10 and hospital admissions evolution showed a very fluctuated hourly, weekly, monthly, yearly tendency. The PM10 concentration in winter (34.72 μg/m3) was 82% higher than the multiannual average (19.00 μg/m3), and almost three times higher than in summer (11.71 μg/m3). During the winter, PM10 concentration increased by an average of 9.36 μg/m3 due to the increased household heating. Climatological parameters have a demonstrable effect on the PM10 concentration variation. Children, the elderly and men are more sensitive to air pollution, the calculated relative risk for men was (RR = 1.45), and for women (RR = 1.37), respectively. A moderate correlation (0.51) was found between PM10 and pneumonia (P), while a relatively weak correlation (0.39) was demonstrated in the case of PM10 and upper respiratory tract infections (URTI). Furthermore, except thermal humidity index (THI), strong negative correlations were observed between the multiannual monthly mean PM10 and the meteorological data. The PM10 followed a moderate negative correlation with the boundary layer (−0.61). In the case of URTI and P, the highest number of hospital admissions occurred with a 5 to 7-day lag, while the 10 μg/m3 PM10 increase resulted in a 2.04% and 8.28% morbidity increase. For lung cancer (LC) and cardiovascular diseases (AMI, IHD, CCP), a maximum delay of 5–6 months was found. Three-month delay and an average growth of 1.51% was observed in the case of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Overall, these findings revealed that PM10 was and it is responsible for one-third of the diseases.

 

 

22. The Effect of Meteorological, Pollution, and Geographic Exposures on Death by Suicide: A Scoping Review

Cornelius, S. L., Berry, T., Goodrich, A. J., Shiner, B., & Riblet, N. B. (2021). The effect of meteorological, pollution, and geographic exposures on death by suicide: a scoping review. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(15), 7809.

Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide and in the United States. Despite the far-reaching impact of suicide, risk factors are still not well understood and efforts to accurately assess risk have fallen short. Current research has highlighted how potentially modifiable environmental exposures (i.e., meteorological, pollution, and geographic exposures) can affect suicide risk. A scoping review was conducted to evaluate the strength of the historical and current literature on the environment’s effect on suicide and suicide risk. Three databases (i.e., Medline, Embase, and PsychInfo) were reviewed to identify relevant studies and two authors independently reviewed studies considering pre-determined inclusion criteria. A total of 46 meteorological studies were included as well as 23 pollution studies and 12 geographic studies. Descriptive statistics, including counts, percentages, review of studies’ sample size (minimum, maximum, median, and interquartile range), were calculated using Excel and SAS 9.4. Overall, strong evidence supports that exposure to sunlight, temperature, air pollution, pesticides, and high altitude increases suicide risk, although effect sizes range from very small to small.

 

 

23. Is there an association between hot weather and poor mental health outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Liu, J., Varghese, B. M., Hansen, A., Xiang, J., Zhang, Y., Dear, K., et al. (2021). Is there an association between hot weather and poor mental health outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis. Environment International, 153, 106533.

Mental health is an important public health issue globally. A potential link between heat exposure and mental health outcomes has been recognised in the scientific literature; however, the associations between heat exposure (both high ambient temperatures and heatwaves) and mental health-related mortality and morbidity vary between studies and locations. To fill gaps in knowledge, this systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence and investigate the quantitative effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves on mental health-related mortality and morbidity outcomes, while exploring sources of heterogeneity. A systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies on heat exposure and mental health outcomes published between January 1990 and November 2020 was conducted using five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO). We included studies that examined the association between high ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and mental health-related mortality and morbidity (e.g. hospital admissions and emergency department visits) in the general population. A range of mental health conditions were defined using ICD-10 classifications. We performed random effects meta-analysis to summarize the relative risks (RRs) in mental health outcomes per 1 °C increase in temperature, and under different heatwaves definitions. We further evaluated whether variables such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and climate zone may explain the observed heterogeneity. The keyword search yielded 4560 citations from which we identified 53 high temperatures/heatwaves studies that comprised over 1.7 million mental health-related mortality and 1.9 million morbidity cases in total. Our findings suggest associations between heat exposures and a range of mental health-related outcomes. Regarding high temperatures, our meta-analysis of study findings showed that for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the mental health-related mortality and morbidity increased with a RR of 1.022 (95%CI: 1.015–1.029) and 1.009 (95%CI: 1.007–1.015), respectively. The greatest mortality risk was attributed to substance-related mental disorders (RR, 1.046; 95%CI: 0.991–1.101), followed by organic mental disorders (RR, 1.033; 95%CI: 1.020–1.046). A 1 °C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity such as mood disorders, organic mental disorders, schizophrenia, neurotic and anxiety disorders. Findings suggest evidence of vulnerability for populations living in tropical and subtropical climate zones, and for people aged more than 65 years. There were significant moderate and high heterogeneities between effect estimates in overall mortality and morbidity categories, respectively. Lower heterogeneity was noted in some subgroups. The magnitude of the effect estimates for heatwaves varied depending on definitions used. The highest effect estimates for mental health-related morbidity was observed when heatwaves were defined as “mean temperature ≥90th percentile for ≥3 days” (RR, 1.753; 95%CI: 0.567–5.421), and a significant effect was also observed when the definition was “mean temperature ≥95th percentile for ≥3 days”, with a RR of 1.064 (95%CI: 1.006–1.123). Our findings support the hypothesis of a positive association between elevated ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse mental health outcomes. This problem will likely increase with a warming climate, especially in the context of climate change. Further high-quality studies are needed to identify modifying factors of heat impacts.

 

 

24. Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

Grigorieva, E., & Lukyanets, A. (2021). Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review. Atmosphere, 12(6), 790.

Association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory health is well documented. At the same time, it is widely known that extreme weather events intrinsically exacerbate air pollution impact. Particularly, hot weather and extreme temperatures during heat waves (HW) significantly affect human health, increasing risks of respiratory mortality and morbidity. Concurrently, a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures can be combined with weather–air pollution interaction during wildfires. The purpose of the current review is to summarize literature on interplay of hot weather, air pollution, and respiratory health consequences worldwide, with the ultimate goal of identifying the most dangerous pollution agents and vulnerable population groups. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Scopus, focusing only on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 2000 to 2021. The main findings demonstrate that the increased level of PM10 and O3 results in significantly higher rates of respiratory and cardiopulmonary mortality. Increments in PM2.5 and PM10, O3, CO, and NO2 concentrations during high temperature episodes are dramatically associated with higher admissions to hospital in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, daily hospital emergency transports for asthma, acute and chronic bronchitis, and premature mortality caused by respiratory disease. Excessive respiratory health risk is more pronounced in elderly cohorts and small children. Both heat waves and outdoor air pollution are synergistically linked and are expected to be more serious in the future due to greater climate instability, being a crucial threat to global public health that requires the responsible involvement of researchers at all levels. Sustainable urban planning and smart city design could significantly reduce both urban heat islands effect and air pollution.

 

 

25. Psychological impairment and extreme weather event (EWE) exposure, 1980–2020: A global pooled analysis integrating mental health and well-being metrics

Chique, C., Hynds, P., Nyhan, M. M., Lambert, S., Boudou, M., & O'Dwyer, J. (2021). Psychological impairment and extreme weather event (EWE) exposure, 1980–2020: A global pooled analysis integrating mental health and well-being metrics. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 238, 113840.

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) impose a substantial health and socio-economic burden on exposed populations. Projected impacts on public health, based on increasing EWE frequencies since the 1950s, alongside evidence of human-mediated climatic change represents a growing concern. To date, the impacts of EWEs on mental health remain ambiguous, largely due to the inherent complexities in linking extreme weather phenomena with psychological status. This exploratory investigation provides a new empirical and global perspective on the psychological toll of EWEs by exclusively focusing on psychological morbidity among individuals exposed to such events. Morbidity data collated from a range of existing psychological and well-being measures have been integrated to develop a single (“holistic”) metric, namely, psychological impairment. Morbidity, and impairment, were subsequently pooled for key disorders-, specifically PTSD, anxiety and depression. A “composite” (any impairment) post-exposure pooled-prevalence rate of 23% was estimated, with values of 24% calculated for depression and ⁓17% for both PTSD and anxiety. Notably, calculated pooled odds ratios (pOR = 1.9) indicate a high likelihood of any negative psychological outcome (+90%) following EWE exposure. Pooled analyses of reported risk factors (p < 0.05) highlight the pronounced impacts of EWEs among individuals with higher levels of event exposure or experienced stressors (14.5%) and socio-demographic traits traditionally linked to vulnerable sub-populations, including female gender (10%), previous history (i.e., pre-event) of psychological impairment (5.5%), lower socio-economic status (5.5%), and a lower education level (5.2%). Inherent limitations associated with collating mental health data from populations exposed to EWEs, and key knowledge gaps in the field are highlighted. Study findings provide a robust evidence base for developing and implementing public health intervention strategies aimed at ameliorating the psychological impacts of extreme weather among exposed populations.

 

 

26. The association between COVID-19 deaths and short-term ambient air pollution/meteorological condition exposure: a retrospective study from Wuhan, China

Jiang, Y., & Xu, J. (2021). The association between COVID-19 deaths and short-term ambient air pollution/meteorological condition exposure: a retrospective study from Wuhan, China. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 14(1), 1-5.

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic after its first outbreak in Wuhan, China. However, it remains unclear whether COVID-19 death is linked to ambient air pollutants or meteorological conditions. We collected the daily COVID-19 death number, air quality index (AQI), ambient air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological variables data of Wuhan between Jan 25 and April 7, 2020. The Pearson and Poisson regression models were used accordingly to understand the association between COVID-19 deaths and each risk factor. The daily COVID-19 deaths were positively correlated with AQI (slope = 0.4 ± 0.09, R2 = 0.24, p < 0.01). Detailedly, PM2.5 was the only pollutant exhibiting a positive association (relative risk (RR) = 1.079, 95%CI 1.071–1.086, p < 0.01) with COVID-19 deaths. The PM10, SO2, and CO were all also significantly associated with COVID-19 deaths, but in negative pattern (p < 0.01). Among them, PM10 and CO had the highest and lowest RR, which equaled to 0.952 (95%CI 0.945–0.959) and 0.177 (95%CI 0.131–0.24), respectively. Additionally, temperature was inversely associated with COVID-19 deaths (RR = 0.861, 95%CI 0.851–0.872, p < 0.01). Contrarily, diurnal temperature range was positively associated with COVID-19 deaths (RR = 1.014, 95%CI 1.003–1.025, p < 0.05). The data suggested that PM2.5 and diurnal temperature range are tightly associated with increased COVID-19 deaths.

 

 

27. Disparities of weather type and geographical location in the impacts of temperature variability on cancer mortality: A multicity case-crossover study in Jiangsu Province, China

Yi, W., Cheng, J., Wei, Q., Pan, R., Song, S., He, Y., ... & Su, H. (2021). Disparities of weather type and geographical location in the impacts of temperature variability on cancer mortality: A multicity case-crossover study in Jiangsu Province, China. Environmental Research, 197, 110985.

Considering the serious health burden caused by adverse weather events, increasing researches focused on the relationship between temperature variability (TV) and cause-specific mortality, but its association with cancer was not well explored. We aimed to investigate the impacts of TV on cancer mortality and examine the modifying effects of weather type and geographical location as well as other characteristics. Daily city-specific data of cancer deaths, mean temperature (Tmean), maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), relative humidity (RH), rainfall, and air pollutants were collected during 2016–2017 in 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, China. TV0-t was defined as the standard deviation of the daily Tmax and Tmin on the exposure 0-t days. A two-stage analysis was applied. First, a time-stratified case-crossover design was used to examine the odds ratio (OR) and attributable fraction of cancer mortality per 1 °C increase in TV by adjusting for potential confounders. Random effect meta-analysis was used to summarize the pooled ORs. Second, stratified analysis was performed for weather type, geographical location, demographics, and other city-level characteristics. The weather was defined as four types according to days during warm or cold season combined with high or low RH. A total of 303670 cases were included in our study. Meta-analysis showed that the ORs of cancer mortality per 1 °C increase in TV0-t significantly increased and peaked in TV0-2 (OR=1.0098, 95% CI: 1.0039–1.0157). The attributable fraction of TV0-2 on cancer mortality was 4.74%, accounting for 14395 deaths in the study period. Significant ORs of TV-related cancer mortality were found during the warm season combined with high RH and in the northern region of Jiangsu. Susceptible groups of TV-related cancer mortality were identified as female patients, patients aged 45–65 years, and those living in cities with lower per capita green area. TV can significantly increase the risk of cancer mortality, especially during warm and humid days and in the northern region of Jiangsu. Findings are of great significance to formulate urban planning, resource allocation, and health intervention to prolong the life of cancer patients.

 

28. Changes in Air Quality Associated with Mobility Trends and Meteorological Conditions during COVID-19 Lockdown in Northern England, UK

Munir, S., Coskuner, G., Jassim, M. S., Aina, Y. A., Ali, A., & Mayfield, M. (2021). Changes in Air Quality Associated with Mobility Trends and Meteorological Conditions during COVID-19 Lockdown in Northern England, UK. Atmosphere, 12(4), 504.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered catastrophic impacts on human life, but at the same time demonstrated positive impacts on air quality. In this study, the impact of COVID-19 lockdown interventions on five major air pollutants during the pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown periods is analysed in three urban areas in Northern England: Leeds, Sheffield, and Manchester. A Generalised Additive Model (GAM) was implemented to eliminate the effects of meteorological factors from air quality to understand the variations in air pollutant levels exclusively caused by reductions in emissions. Comparison of lockdown with pre-lockdown period exhibited noticeable reductions in concentrations of NO (56.68–74.16%), NO2 (18.06–47.15%), and NOx (35.81–56.52%) for measured data. However, PM10 and PM2.5 levels demonstrated positive gain during lockdown ranging from 21.96–62.00% and 36.24–80.31%, respectively. Comparison of lockdown period with the equivalent period in 2019 also showed reductions in air pollutant concentrations, ranging 43.31–69.75% for NO, 41.52–62.99% for NOx, 37.13–55.54% for NO2, 2.36–19.02% for PM10, and 29.93–40.26% for PM2.5. Back trajectory analysis was performed to show the air mass origin during the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods. Further, the analysis showed a positive association of mobility data with gaseous pollutants and a negative correlation with particulate matter.

 

 

29. Short-term effects of air pollutants on hospitalization rate in patients with cardiovascular disease: a case-crossover study

Sokoty, L., Rimaz, S., Hassanlouei, B., Kermani, M., & Janani, L. (2021). Short-term effects of air pollutants on hospitalization rate in patients with cardiovascular disease: a case-crossover study. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(20), 26124-26131.

Considering the increasing rate of hospitalization due to the symptoms intensification, and the increasing trend of air pollution, this study aimed to determine the relationship between the amount of air pollutants and the incidence of cardiovascular disease leading to hospitalization. This case-crossover study was carried out on the data of admitted patients with cardiovascular disease such as hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease in Urmia during 2011–2016. Weather data about air pollutants (NO2, PM10, SO2, and CO) were obtained from the meteorological department of Urmia. The data were coded for each patient and matched with the meteorological data for statistical modeling. The data were analyzed through STATA version 14. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease adjusted to air temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants. The final analysis was performed on 43,424 patients with cardiovascular disease using code I10-I99 including ischemic heart disease, hypertension, and cerebrovascular disease adjusted to air temperature and relative humidity. Of all pollutants, CO with each increase 10 μg/m3 had a meaningful relationship with the incidence of cardiovascular hospitalization. By selecting the window of exposure, 1, 2, and 6 days before admission, lag 6 (6 days) was the best estimation for exposure time in the patients with cardiovascular patients (OR 1.0056, CI 1.0041–1.007), and in the patients with ischemic heart disease (OR 1.000055, CI 1.000036–1.000075) and in the patients with hypertension (OR 1.000076, CI 1.00002–1.000132). Regarding cerebrovascular disease, no statistically significant association was observed. The results showed that only CO was associated with an increased risk of admission in patients with cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and hypertension, and there was no clear evidence for pollution effects on cerebrovascular diseases.

 

 

30. The effect of weather, air pollution and seasonality on the number of patient visits for epileptic seizures: A population-based time-series study

Chiang, K. L., Lee, J. Y., Chang, Y. M., Kuo, F. C., & Huang, C. Y. (2021). The effect of weather, air pollution and seasonality on the number of patient visits for epileptic seizures: A population-based time-series study. Epilepsy & Behavior, 115, 107487.

The objective of the study was to explore the influences of seasonality, meteorological conditions, and air pollution exposure on the number of patients who visit the hospital due to seizures. Outpatient and inpatient data from the National Health Insurance Database of Taiwan from 2009 to 2013, meteorological data from the Meteorological Bureau, and air pollution exposure data from the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Stations were collected and integrated into daily time series data. The following data processing and analysis results are based on the mean of the 7 days' lag data of the 18 meteorological condition/air pollution exploratory factors to identify the critical meteorological conditions and air pollution exposure factors by executing univariate analysis. The average hospital visits for seizure per day by month were used as an index of observation. The effect of seasonality has also been examined. The average visits per day by month had a significant association with 10 variables. Overall, the number of visits due to these factors has been estimated to be 71.529 (13.7%). The most obvious factors affecting the estimated number of visits include ambient temperature, CH4, and NO. Six air pollutants, namely CH4, NO, CO, NO2, PM2.5, and NMHC had a significantly positive correlation with hospital visits due to seizures. Moreover, the average daily number of hospital visits was significantly high in January and February (winter season in Taiwan) than in other months (R2 = 0.422). The prediction model obtained in this study indicates the necessity of rigorous monitoring and early warning of these air pollutants and climate changes by governments. Additionally, the study provided a firm basis for establishing prediction models to be used by other countries or for other diseases.

 

31. A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity

Davis, C., Murphy, A. K., Bambrick, H., Devine, G. J., Frentiu, F. D., Yakob, L., et al. (2021). A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity. Environmental Research, 195, 110849.

Abstract

The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4·5, 6·0 and 8·5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17·05–34·61 °C for Ae. aegypti and 15·84–31·51 °C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries. Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070. The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an ea